Over the next 10 years, Australia will hit demographic milestones that point out how rapidly the nation, states and territories, and the cities are changing. Social shifts are occurring as Australians live longer, have children later and work longer. 

10 trends to prepare for the next 10 years in Australia

2025

Generation Beta begin being born, marking the first time seven generations have been alive at once.

2026

Western Sydney’s international airport will open, marking the birth of the aerotropolis.

2027

Gen Z will enter the parenting life stage (as 2027 marks the year that the oldest Gen Zs reach 31, which is the median age of mothers at first birth).

2028

The oldest Generation Alphas will vote in their first federal election.

2029

New South Wales will reach a population of nine million while Sydney will approach six million.

2030

Australia will reach a population of 30 million people, and South Australia will reach two million. The oldest Gen Betas will start primary school.

2031

Melbourne is predicted to overtake Sydney as the largest city in Australia.

2032

The Summer Olympics will be held in South East QLD, experienced by more than six million QLD residents.

2033

The oldest Generation X workers will reach the retirement age of 67.

2034

New South Wales will reach a population of 10 million, and Victoria will hit 8.5 million.

2035

Australia will reach a population of 32 million people and life expectancy will reach 87 for females and 83 for males.

A Decade of Population and Generational Change

The next decade will be characterised by population growth, with Australia predicted to reach a population of 30 million by 2030 and 32 million by 2035.

There are major milestones ahead for many states, with New South Wales expected to reach 10 million residents, Victoria reaching eight million, Queensland reaching six million, Western Australia reaching three million and South Australia reaching two million residents. In the decade ahead Melbourne will also overtake Sydney as Australia’s largest city.

The decade to 2035 will be feature many generational landmark moments in Australia. Population growth and generational changes are happening faster than ever. Leaders need to become futurists to find the opportunity amidst the disruptions that will occur. – MCCRINDLE

Generational landmark moments will also occur as Gen Beta start school, Gen Alpha vote for the first time, Gen Z become parents and Gen X enter their retirement years.

To address these changes, leaders will do well to adopt the mindset of a futurist; that is, someone who can anticipate change, embrace disruption and find opportunities for growth.

Like a surfer, leaders position themselves for the next wave of change. They have their eyes fixed on the horizon, scanning for the next opportunity amidst disruption.

See our population map and generational profile infographic for the current state of the nation.

Article supplied with thanks to McCrindle.

About the Author: McCrindle are a team of researchers and communications specialists who discover insights, and tell the story of Australians – what we do, and who we are.

Feature image: Canva

In the hushed corridors of maternity wards across the developed world, something remarkable is happening.

With each passing year, fewer cries of new-borns echo through these halls—yet paradoxically, in countries like Australia, there is a greater number of babies are being born than during the celebrated baby boom of the 1960s. Despite this, the total fertility rate continues to drop.

This is the puzzling reality of our modern fertility landscape. In 1960, the total fertility rate was 3.3 children per woman on average across OECD countries. Fast forward to 2022, and that number has declined to just 1.5 children per woman.

Australia’s story mirrors this global shift. From 1961 when the fertility rate peaked at 3.55 children per woman, we’ve witnessed a steady decline to today’s historic low of 1.5. But there’s a nuance to this. Despite this dramatic drop in family size, and birth rates at an all-time low, the number of births is higher than the historical baby boom. In 1961, 239,986 births were recorded. Today 50,000 more births were recorded than in 1961 (286,998).

The Population Paradox

Today’s birth rate of 1.5 is below the replacement level, which is an average of 2.1 births per women.

The current birth rate of 1.5 children per woman seems robust when counting total births, but it falls short of the replacement level of 2.1, the number needed for a population to sustain itself without immigration. This isn’t a recent change; Australia has been below this threshold for the last 50 years, since falling under 2.15 in 1975. In 2008, following the introduction of the baby bonus, fertility rates climbed to 2.02—tantalizingly close to replacement level. But the trend didn’t last.

An Ageing Population

A low fertility rate does more than change family dynamics – it gradually reshapes the structure of society in ways that touch everything from healthcare to economic growth.

If Australia’s fertility rate continues its downward trajectory at 1.5 children per woman, we face a future where grey hair becomes more common than childish laughter. Based on its current trajectory, by 2026 it is expected that those aged over 65 will outnumber children under 15 .

This represents a fundamental shift in the population pyramid as it becomes inverted, where young workers will be required to generate more economic output to support both themselves and a growing cohort of retirees.

The implications of this are that working-age Australians will shoulder increasingly heavy burdens – funding pension systems, staffing healthcare facilities, and maintaining economic productivity while caring for an expanding elderly population.

Changing Attitudes Towards Parenthood

Despite declining fertility rates, Australians still want to be parents. The dream of family hasn’t faded – it’s just being reimagined for the modern era.

According to our nationally representative survey, 62% of Australians are parents already, while 18% hope to be in the future. Only 12% have deliberately chosen a child-free life, while 5% are unsure if they want children. For 3% of Australians, they wanted to, but they couldn’t have children.

At the same time as the fertility rate has been declining, society’s attitudes towards parenting have also been changing. Three in five Australians (59%) strongly or somewhat agree that there is an expectation to establish a career and be financially stable before having children.

While 64% strongly/somewhat agree that there is a greater responsibility for raising children to be shared equally between the partners, this is not always the case. Despite greater participation of women in education and the workforce, women are often still carrying a greater share of the domestic and unpaid labour of the home, and it is young females under 35 (66%) who are most likely to agree that society doesn’t place enough value on the sacrifice to have children (compared to 46% under 35 males).

Today, many look for personal fulfilment outside of having a family, and having children is something that young adults are now encouraged to intentionally question (41%). Alongside this, while many believe the joys and rewards of having children are well celebrated (62%), half believe that society doesn’t place enough value on the sacrifice to have children (53%)

Based on its current trajectory, by 2026 it is expected that those aged over 65 will outnumber children under 15.

Finances Are The Driving Concerns Around Having Children

Stability and confidence are the driving considerations when embarking on the journey of parenthood, particularly with regards to finances and affordability. Nearly half of all Australians (49%) cite the cost of raising children as their primary concern about parenthood. This is followed by wanting to be financially secure before having children (33%) and economic uncertainty (28%). A quarter are concerned about the state of the future world (26%) and falling short as a parent (25%).

The story of Australia’s fertility landscape is one of striking contradictions. While birth rates have fallen to historic lows of 1.5 children per woman, the actual number of births exceeds that of the baby boom era. Meanwhile, the desire for parenthood remains strong, yet financial concerns cast shadows over these aspirations.

If the current cost to parenthood is perceived to be too high, policies that can practically ease the financial and emotional costs to having children, could be considered. Alongside rebuilding the social conversation around valuing strong families and celebrating the joys and beauty of family life.

Article supplied with thanks to McCrindle.

About the Author: McCrindle are a team of researchers and communications specialists who discover insights, and tell the story of Australians – what we do, and who we are.

Feature image: Canva 

While headlines often paint a picture of religious decline in Australia, new research is highlighting a different—and surprising—story: Australians are returning to Christianity in unexpected numbers.

Social research group McCrindle has just released An Undercurrent of Faith: Exploring Australians’ renewed relationship with Christianity, a study combining analysis of Census data with a nationally representative survey of over 3,000 Australians. 

The findings reveal that nearly 800,000 people who identified as having “no religion” in 2016 listed Christianity as their faith by the 2021 Census. That number jumps to 2.4 million over the past three Census periods.

Mark McCrindle, social researcher and founder of McCrindle, shares about the findings of their new report.

“Most people are aware of the headline story over the last decade has been the decline in Christianity,” Mark said.

“In fact, in 10 years from census data, it went from 61% of the population down to 44%. So that’s a pretty big drop. But amidst that, we’re seeing changes.”

One key driver of this shift is how Australians now define religion. People are less likely to claim Christianity based solely on upbringing or tradition and more likely to do so from a place of personal belief.

“Cultural Christianity is dissipating,” Mark said. 

“People who tick the Christianity box are more likely ticking up because of a personal conviction rather than sort of an ancestral connection with that faith.”

Not Just Migrants, and Not Just the Elderly

The report breaks common assumptions. 

While it’s often thought that migration is the major source of religious growth, the largest increase came from older Australians—those aged 55 and over. This group experienced a 48% increase in people moving from no religion to Christianity between 2016 and 2021, far outpacing their 15% population growth.

Younger generations are also navigating their spiritual journeys in nuanced ways. While Gen Z and Gen Y are less likely to identify as Christian overall, those who do are far more likely to be regular churchgoers. More than 70% of Gen Y and 68% of Gen Z Christians attend church at least monthly, compared to just 26% of Boomers.

“If you look at all of the baby boomers… only 26% of them go to church”, Mark said.

“They’re more likely to tick the box and not go to church than actually go to church. But when you get down to the youngest generation Generation Z… 68% of them go to church, so the point is at least 2/3 of young people who tick Christian in the census form follow that up by regular church attendance.”

Openness and Opportunity

The study also found that nearly half of Australians are open to spiritual conversations, especially among Gen Z and Gen Y. Religion may no longer be the taboo subject it once was.

Mark explained that churches and other ministries should be encouraged to see the number of young people who went from no religion to Christianity.

“One in six of them had had no Christian background at all… they clearly aren’t ticking the Christianity box because of the family influence.” Mark said.

“I think that highlights the fruitfulness of ministry in Australia even amongst young people”.

The data suggests that early exposure to faith can have a lasting impact, even if it takes years to bear fruit or if people drift away from their religious upbringing.

“Even if young people walk away from [faith] as they move from their teenage years into their 20-something years… that seed may be something they come back to… and reengage in the Christian faith.”

“Based on this data, there is going to be a drift away from that Christian faith if it’s not grounded in something solid in terms of belief and lifestyle”

While the decline in Christian identification is widely reported, the deeper story points to a nation still spiritually curious. 

Top reasons Australians are turning to Christianity include a desire for personal meaning, connection to something greater, and answers to life’s biggest questions.

Article supplied with thanks to 96five.

Feature image: Canva